320 New Homes on Two GLS Sites: Which Existing Condos Actually Face Competition?

URA put two more sites on the table on 29 September 2026: East Coast Road and Serangoon North View. Together they can yield about 320 homes. That is small next to a 1,000-unit launch, so the headline is easy to shrug at. The better question is which existing condos could end up competing with them, and which cannot.

What URA actually released

Two sites, two very different clocks. East Coast Road has a date. Serangoon North View does not. That one difference changes how much attention each deserves.

East Coast Road: 85 homes with a hard size floor

This is the site with a firm timetable. The tender closes on 3 December 2026, so a winning bid and a land price should be public within days of that.

What makes it unusual is the unit size condition. URA sets a minimum average dwelling-unit size of 100 sq m, roughly 1,076 sq ft, and has said the condition is there because of potential traffic issues if the development were larger. The site area is 5,503 sq m with a maximum gross floor area of 8,805 sq m, which works out to a plot ratio of about 1.6.

Do the multiplication yourself. Eighty-five homes at an average of 1,076 sq ft or more means these are not starter units. Purely as an illustration, not a forecast: at an assumed $2,500 psf, a 1,076 sq ft home is about $2.69 million. Replace $2,500 with whatever you think the land price implies, and the quantum tells you who the buyer pool is. It is families with room to spare and downsizers with a large equity base, not first-time condo buyers.

A size floor also changes how a developer can price the site. With the average locked at 100 sq m, there is no room to cut the cheque by building lots of small units. The developer has to find buyers who want space, and that narrows the pool. It can mean a slower sales pace than a typical mid-sized launch, or it can mean a small, tightly priced project that clears to a few well-funded families. Neither outcome is certain, which is why the bid is worth reading closely when it lands.

Serangoon North View: 235 homes on a clock nobody controls

The bigger site is the less certain one. A Reserve List site is released for application, and it is put up for tender only when a developer commits to a minimum bid price the government accepts. Until then it is a possibility, not a launch.

That matters for your own selling window. A site that may tender next quarter, next year or not at all is a different risk from one with a closing date on the calendar. Treat it as supply you are watching, not supply you are pricing in.

New supply does not hit every project equally

When a new site is announced, buyers and owners tend to ask a blunt question: will this hurt my condo? The honest answer is that it depends on whether the new homes would be chasing the same buyer as yours. Four things decide that.

• Tenure. A 99-year leasehold and a freehold boutique block are not the same product to a buyer who thinks in decades.
• Unit size. A 100 sq m average pulls toward large units. A one-bedder in a nearby block is not in that conversation.
• Total quantum. Two projects at similar psf can sit hundreds of thousands of dollars apart in cheque size, and the cheque is what the buyer actually budgets against.
• Completion window. A new project completing three years from now competes with your resale only if your selling window overlaps its handover.

Competition is not about distance on a map. It is about whose buyer is the same buyer.

Which existing projects are in the frame

For East Coast Road, the natural comparison set is the Siglap and East Coast stretch: newer boutique and mid-sized projects such as 77 @ East Coast and Seaside Residences, plus older freehold boutique condos where the same large-unit buyer would also shop. For Serangoon North View, the set is the Serangoon and Serangoon Gardens belt, including projects such as The Garden Residences and Affinity at Serangoon.

I am naming them as places to start looking, not as projects that will fall in value. Whether one of them is genuinely exposed depends on the four checks above. A larger-unit owner at East Coast Road’s neighbours should care a lot more than a small-unit owner two streets away.

The pipeline matters more than the headline

One new site is a data point. The pipeline is the trend. The 2H2026 Confirmed List has nine sites that can yield about 4,745 private homes, including about 735 executive condominium units, and URA says that is more than 50 per cent above the annual average Confirmed List supply of the past ten years. The Reserve List adds thirteen more sites that may or may not come through.

So when you size up competition, order what can reach the market before you sell, from most certain to least:

1. Existing resale listings in your own project and next door.
2. Sites already awarded, where the developer is building or about to launch.
3. Open tenders, like East Coast Road, with a closing date.
4. Reserve List sites, like Serangoon North View, with no date at all.

Your exit buyer sees the whole menu

Run this exercise for any condo you own or plan to buy near these sites. Write down your unit’s bedroom count, its likely total price, its tenure and facilities, and the year you expect to sell. Then list every option with the same four attributes that could be on the market in that year. That list, not the headline supply number, is your competition set.

If the list is short, a new site is mostly noise. If it contains two or three near-identical alternatives completing in your selling year, you have learned something worth knowing before you commit.

What I would do with this now

Two things. First, mark 3 December 2026 in your diary and read the bid results when they come out. The land price will say more about large-unit pricing in Siglap than any headline can. Second, if you hold or are shortlisting a condo near either site, build the four-attribute list above. It takes an evening and it replaces worry with a specific answer.

When the bid results are published, three numbers are worth writing down: the top bid in psf ppr, the gap to the second bid, and the number of bidders. A wide gap suggests the winner is underwriting a view that others did not share. A tight cluster of bids suggests the market agrees on what the site is worth. Either way, convert the psf ppr into a rough launch price using the same breakeven arithmetic I walked through for Sin Ming, then compare it against what nearby resale is actually transacting at today.

If you are a nearby owner, the useful reading is not whether the new project is expensive. It is whether it makes your own unit look better value by comparison, or worse. A new launch priced well above your resale tends to support your asking price. One priced at or below it, in a similar size, is the situation to prepare for.

Related reading: how a record land bid in Sin Ming sets the floor for a future launch price.

Sources: URA media release on the East Coast Road and Serangoon North View sites, 29 September 2026; URA 2H2026 Government Land Sales Programme; EdgeProp and Stacked Homes coverage of the site particulars. The 1.6 plot ratio is my own calculation from the published site area and maximum gross floor area. The $2,500 psf figure is an illustrative assumption, not a forecast or a quoted price.